DeepSeek Deep-Sixes U.S. Stock Market

https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/27/tech/deepseek-stocks-ai-china/index.html

DeepSeek, a one-year-old startup, revealed a stunning capability: It presented a ChatGPT-like AI model called R1, which has all the familiar abilities, operating at a fraction of the cost of OpenAI’s, Google’s or Meta’s popular AI models. The company said it had spent just $5.6 million training its newest AI model, compared with the hundreds of millions or billions of dollars US companies spend on their AI technologies. The Wall Street Journal first reported the ultra-low cost.

The Dow opened about 369 points, or 0.8%, lower. The S&P 500 fell by 2% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq plunged by 3.6%. The Nasdaq hasn’t closed 4% lower since September 2022.

Meta last week said it would spend upward of $65 billion this year on AI development. Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, last year said the AI industry would need trillions of dollars in investment to support the development of in-demand chips needed to power the electricity-hungry data centers that run the sector’s complex models.

Marc Andreessen, a supporter of President Donald Trump and one of the world’s leading tech investors, called DeepSeek “one of the most amazing and impressive breakthroughs I’ve ever seen,” in a post on X.

The stunning achievement from a relatively unknown AI startup becomes even more shocking when considering that the United States for years has worked to restrict the supply of high-power AI chips to China, citing national security concerns. That means DeepSeek was able to achieve its low-cost model on under-powered AI chips.

That dragged down the broader stock market, because tech stocks make up a significant chunk of the market — tech constitutes about 45% of the S&P 500, according to Keith Lerner, analyst at Truist.

“The bottom line is the US outperformance has been driven by tech and the lead that US companies have in AI,” Lerner said. “The DeepSeek model rollout is leading investors to question the lead that US companies have and how much is being spent and whether that spending will lead to profits (or overspending).”

This week kicks off a series of tech companies reporting earnings, so their response to the DeepSeek stunner could lead to tumultuous market movements in the days and weeks to come.

But one achievement, albeit a gobsmacking one, may not be enough to counter years of progress in American AI leadership. And a massive customer shift to a Chinese startup is unlikely. So the market selloff may be a bit overdone — or perhaps investors were looking for an excuse to sell.

“Time will tell if the DeepSeek threat is real — the race is on as to what technology works and how the big Western players will respond and evolve,” said Michael Block, market strategist at Third Seven Capital. “Markets had gotten too complacent on the beginning of the Trump 2.0 era and may have been looking for an excuse to pull back — and they got a great one here.”