Selection Sunday: Who gets the 4 #1 Seeds?

March Madness: The fight for the four No. 1 seeds is coming down to the wire

History suggests that No. 1 seeds fare considerably better in the NCAA tournament than teams that settle for a No. 2

FLORIDA (25-6, 16-2 SEC) 

NET: 4 | SOR: 5 | KenPom 4 | Q1A: 3-3 | Q1B: 8-2 | Q2: 7-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Vanderbilt, Kentucky (2), Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee

Losses: at Duke, Arizona, UConn, TCU, at Missouri, Auburn

How can Florida have overtaken UConn when the Huskies have a head-to-head victory over the Gators at Madison Square Garden in December? Because head-to-head results are just one criteria the committee will consider.

Yes, UConn has fewer overall losses and a couple more top-tier wins. But Florida has 11 Quadrant 1 victories; UConn has just 7. Florida is perfect against Quadrant 3 and 4; UConn suffered a Quadrant 3 home loss to Creighton last month. Florida is no worse than No. 4 in any of the predictive metrics used by the selection committee; UConn checks in somewhere between 8th and 11th in all of them.

UCONN (27-4, 17-3 Big East) 

NET: 9 | SOR: 4 | KenPom 11 | Q1A: 5-2 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 9-1 | Q3, Q4 losses: 1 (Creighton)

Marquee wins: Florida, Illinois, at Kansas, St. John’s, BYU

Losses: Arizona, at St. John’s, at Marquette, Creighton

For UConn, the good news is that Selection Sunday is still nearly a week away. The bad news is that Florida has more chances to bolster its résumé in the SEC tournament than the Huskies do in the Big East bracket. Florida might have to go through Kentucky or Missouri and Vanderbilt or Tennessee just to make it to Sunday’s SEC title game. The only way that UConn can really improve its standing would be to win a potential rubber match against St. John’s in the Big East title game.

That means UConn could win the Big East tournament and still have to settle for a No. 2 seed in the Big Dance. The only way the Huskies may have to jump back up to the top seed line is if someone in the SEC ousts Florida prior to Sunday’s title game.

What would happen if both Florida and UConn crash out of their respective conference tourneys early? Could someone else win their conference tournament and leapfrog both the Gators and the Huskies? That seems unlikely considering how recent committees have valued season-long results over a team getting hot in its conference tournament.

Houston would probably have the best chance if it strings together wins over, say, BYU, Kansas and Arizona while Florida and UConn do nothing to improve their résumés. That scenario would leave the Cougars with 10 Quadrant 1 wins and only top-tier losses, a résumé that would outdo UConn’s and certainly force the committee to do a side-by-side comparison with Florida.

HOUSTON (26-5, 14-4 Big 12) 

NET: 7 | SOR: 7 | KenPom 6 | Q1A: 4-5 | Q1B: 3-0 | Q2: 11-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Texas Tech, Arkansas, at BYU, at TCU

Losses: Arizona, at Iowa State, at Texas Tech, at Kansas, Tennessee

Other than Houston, it’s hard to see anyone else making a compelling case. The ceiling for Michigan State, Iowa State and Illinois is probably the No. 2 line.

History suggests that No. 1 seeds fare considerably better in the NCAA tournament than teams that settle for a No. 2. There have been 11 15-versus-2 upsets since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Only UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson have ever pulled off a 16-versus-1 stunner.

No. 1 seeds have made it to twice as many Final Fours as No. 2s since 1985. Twenty-six times, a No. 1 seed has won the national championship during that timespan. A No. 2 seed has only cut down the nets five times.

That’s good news for Duke, Michigan and Arizona, each of whom cemented their No. 1 seeds already. All three enter conference tournament play with matching 29-2 records and at least 14 Quadrant 1 victories. Those are numbers no one else in the country can come close to matching.

DUKE (29-2, 17-1 ACC) 

NET: 1 | SOR: 3 | KenPom 1 | Q1A: 9-2 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: Michigan, Florida, at Michigan State, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisville (2)

Losses: Texas Tech, at North Carolina

MICHIGAN (29-2, 19-1 Big Ten) 

NET: 2 | SOR: 1 | KenPom 2 | Q1A: 9-1 | Q1B: 5-1 | Q2: 8-0 | Q3, Q4 losses: 0

Marquee wins: at Illinois, Gonzaga, at Purdue, Michigan State (2), Nebraska

Losses: Duke, Wisconsin