Waymo's Market Share in 2026

Waymo Poised to Disrupt Rideshare Market by 2030 https://share.google/3VvTTXW0WrjTbInWb

Waymo currently captures roughly 20% to 27% local market share in San Francisco, surpassing Lyft and trailing Uber within its core operating zones. Nationally, Wells Fargo projects Waymo will reach 3.5% of total U.S. rideshare market share by 2027 and scale to 10% by 2030.

Waymo Vs Uber and Lyft
Wells Fargo analysts hold that Waymo’s expansion into new cities will enable it to grow its market share to 42% by 2028. This growth, along with price increase challenges, will limit how much Uber and Lyft grow their bookings in the US. Although Waymo rides are expected to increase, analysts expect minimal growth in self-driving vehicle entrants.

“Prospects for Uber and Lyft to serve as key demand partners for autonomous vehicle suppliers have dimmed recently as Waymo appears thus far to be going it alone in all announced TBD/2026 markets,” Wells Fargo analysts said.

Even so, there may be opportunities for Lyft and Uber in the long term to drive the adoption of self-driving fleets. Despite this, Waymo’s growth will have implications for the two industry leaders. Wells Fargo forecasts that by 2030, Uber and Lyft will lose 5% and 4% of their US market share. Analysts in the bank also estimate that Waymo rides will increase by 30% over the same period.